Original question by @BalakeKarbon@lemmy.ml
It seems like a lot of professionals are thinking we will reach AGI within my lifetime. Some credible sources say within 5 years but who knows.
Either way I suspect it is inevitable. Who knows what may follow. Infinite wealth gap growth, mass job loss, post-work reforms, I’m not sure.
A bunch of questions bounce around in my head, examples may be:
- Will private property rights be honored in said future?
- Could Amish communities still exist?
- Is it something we can prepare for as individuals?
I figured it is important to talk about seeing as it will likely occur in my lifetime and many of yours.
I don’t think we will be able to achieve AGI with anything other than an absolute accident. We don’t understand our own brains enough to create one from scratch.
What makes you think a human brain has anything to do with general intelligence? Have you ever talked to people with a human brain?
I have talked to many people. All have demonstrated having a human brain with varying degrees of intelligence.
25 years away and always will be.
It won’t happen while I’m alive. Current LLMs are basically parrots with a lot of experience, and will never get close to AGI. We’re no closer today than when a computer first passed the Turing test in the 60s.
Experienced parrots that are constantly wrong.
Marketing tool. LLM’s are not magic no matter what people think
I’m more worried about jobs getting nuked no matter whatever AGI turns out to be. It can be vapourware and still the capitalist cult will sacrifice labour on that altar.
I think it is inevitable. The main flaw I see from a lay perspective in current methodology is trying to make one neural network that does everything. Our own brains are composed of multiple neural networks with different jobs interacting with each other, so I assume that AGI will require this approach.
For example: we are currently struggling with LLM hallucinations. What could reduce this? A separate fact-checking neural network.
Please keep in mind that my opinion is almost worthless, but you asked.
I don’t see any reason to believe anything currently being done is a direct path to AGI. Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are straight up liars and the fact so many people lap up their shameless hype marketing is just sad.
The computer doesn’t even understand things nor asks questions unprompted. I don’t think people understand that it doesn’t understand, lol. Intelligence seems to be non-computational!
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Not without a major breakthrough in knowledge representation.
LLMs aren’t it.
In a single person’s lifetime, we went from not flying to landing on the moon. We absolutely can produce AGI in most of our lifetimes. I predict within 15-20 years, we will have a functioning AGI. It may also need to coincide with actually figuring out quantum computing just for sheer computational needs.
This all hinges on if investments in AI continue at its current pace, which we already see cracks in though.
Why would AGI threaten the existence of the Amish and/or change laws regarding property rights?
It may or may not happen. What I do know is that it will never spontaneously arrise from an LLM, no matter how much data they dump into it or how many tons of potable water they carelessly waste.
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Anyone telling you it’s five years away? Check their investments.
