Gas prices go brrrrrrr
And diesel prices (which underpin essentially all industry and production) have gone even more brrrrrrrrrr. Which means just about everything else will be shooting up in price soon if the strait remains closed…
Right its crazy.
We have diesel for Aud$2.42 a litre where I am.
A week ago it was $1.84
I repair the machines that unload boats at the port, some of those hold 12000 litres of diesel and use 3/4 of it unloading a container ship.
Just that volume alone will effect the cost of shit
Fuck that sounds like a cool job.
It’s not bad, rough on the body though. It’s pretty clean in comparison to mine site work in the dirt though
Reminds me of the first episode of Smiling Friends when one of the main character’s father starts complaining about working in the ‘bloody mines all day’.
In Australia you can make a great living from it if you can handle the sacrifices you make.
Away from home for 3 to 4 weeks at a time 12 hour shifts with half hour travel each way to and from camp ontop.
Most places you do your own laundry but meals are provided.
Most of the jobs are also in the hottest most remote parts of Australia too where temperatures routinely reach the high 40s.
But you do that and can earn over 200k a year with just an apprenticeship behind you
Not a bad wage for that kind of work. Kinda like working as a merchant marine.
And much of the world’s fertilizer is shipped out of the strait of hormuz,and it’s currently spring, when fields would be getting fertilized right now. So food prices will jump too, and crop yields will be Lower
Wright posted that “the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets,” crediting President Donald Trump with “maintaining stability of global energy during the military operations against Iran.”
Within hours, a senior source in the IRGC’s naval force told Iranian outlet Iran Now that the claim “has no basis in truth,” insisting that no US-escorted tanker had transited the strait.
The source described the announcement as part of a “media war and attempts to mislead public opinion,” adding that the strait remains under “precise surveillance” by Iranian forces and that “any military movement in the area is fully monitored.”
Wright subsequently deleted the post without public explanation, undermining a week of administration messaging aimed at convincing the world that commercial traffic would soon resume.
For an administration that relies so heavily on propaganda lies, they are remarkably terrible at lying.
In any case, even if it were true and not a pathetic lie, Donald Trump would deserve no credit for slightly mitigating the problems Donald Trump caused when Donald Trump decided to start bombing Iran and slaughtering its civilians.
At a certain point the propaganda stops making any sense on purpose. It’s not designed to deceive. It’s used to identify resistance.
1984 ass
the timeline in which the IGRC’s public statement are more trustworthy than US officials…
“Flood the zone with shit” means it’s more important to tell many lies fast than to tell any lies well.
They have always been bad at lying. Every lie this administration tells is obviously transparent, if they were good enough to concoct a reasonable lie they would be intelligent enough to not get involved in a war with an oil producing country without first restocking their oil reserves. No one this administration has any brains at all.
Oil companies and oil tanker crews are subject to the same fog of war as everyone else. They don’t know if there are mines. They don’t know if they can trust the US government to protect them or pay out the insurance. They have seen US bases get bombed. They don’t know if the US is lying or not because trust in the US is at an all time low.
It doesn’t matter if the strait is mined or not, because the perception the strait could be mined is enough. It is simply not worth the risk.
Edit: lmao nevermind. 3 ships just tried running the blockade. Emphasis on tried
Tanker-insurance is impossible to get, now, therefore there simply won’t be any ships going through, until that gets remedied.
& it won’t get remedied until MUCH more than “an assertion that it’s clear” is in-place.
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-warfare-how-seven-insurance
It’s going to be 1/4y MINIMUM before ships begin going through, again, from the looks of that…
maybe closer to a year.
Dominoes got BIG, thanks to the economic-rules underpinning everything in industry…
_ /\ _
If only this wall could have been prevented. Sadly that was impossible since the US started it for no reason at all, oh wait.
They don’t know if they can trust the US government to protect them or pay out the insurance.
With how many of Trump’s lawyers got their bills paid in full and on time, I would be skeptical too.
seems like they will reroute through egypt and to SE’ASIA to avoid the mines at this point.
Trump, the climate change denialist, doing his best to speed up the green energy transition.
What do ya know, consequences. Carpet combing, killing their kids and turning their country into fucking hellscape.
Trump went like “Why just stop with US when I can fuck supermarket prices globally”
Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please. Machiavelli
The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it.
- George Orwell
Markets going up in response.
Lolz. Lmao, even.
Trump said it’s almost over, so uhh, I guess mission accomplished?
We certainly didn’t hear about Epstein the past couple of weeks so yeah, mission accomplished
I hear things. Operation Epstein’s Fury and all.
We certainly didn’t hear about Epstein
Yes we did.
Its because European countries announced they are going to release strategic reserves.
I still don’t get it though because that only covers 2 weeks and Iran has already taken down some permanent capacity in the region and a bunch of places had to stop pumping (meaning well mineralization and reopening times of months). I would expect oil to be at $100 even with the strategic reserves announcement.
Ah, but you see that’s a problem for future people.
Fuck future me. I got mine!
In the next couple weeks, demand is going to go down as the weather warms up. After that, they have all summer to to work on shifting production to renewables as much as possible and shifting fossil fuel suppliers to ones that don’t need to use that strait.
Summer somewhat affects natural gas. Demand for petrol and fertilizer doesn’t go down in the summer. There’s no way renewables are going to have an effect on the demand for those commodities in the next 12 months.
How much sense it makes depends on which markets went up. If, for example, you are an Alberta oil producer, this situation is wonder for the bottom line.
Decarbonise already FFS, make this irrelevant
Irrelevant for us. The loss of a major shipping route is always going to be a blow to the regional economy.
If all they export is poison…
They also export fertilizer. You know, the stuff that makes food.
Genuinely curious, how many percentages is that of total export?
Approximately 10% of global trade according to the UN.
I stand corrected then. Interesting.
Prices for everything will increase…again. Thank to the MAGA and Likud fucknuts!
The convoy idea is so dumb that I can’t believe anyone said it out loud. Effective strategy against commerce raiders, which Iran explicitly does not have. Might as well offer to mount a CIWS on tankers and hope your insurance premiums will see it as a wash (they won’t). Makes as much sense as suggesting you counter drones with cavalry.
If I was one of those oil companies, I’d say sure. You staff the tanker with your people and you insure us for any losses incurred. Also, put an upfront amount of insurance money in escrow.
But we’re not risking lives, merchandise, and equipment. You want the oil that badly. You move it. We’re just going to raise oil prices to cover our losses in the meantime, so we’re fine.
Oh they tried this, admin offered to pay oil companies for damages and move it themselves. Little catch there is tanker ships take half a decade or longer to build. The companies cannot afford to roll the dice on losing one, even if they’ll get reimbursed for the ship. They lose capacity ($$$) waiting for the replacement.
And USA doesn’t build those ships.
Who does build those ships?
China and South Korea, but mostly China.
Yeah, losses would wouldn’t just be the cargo and the ship, it would be a decade long hit to earnings. And I’d want to see money for all of that, in escrow, before I moved an inch. Trump is famous for not paying his debts. I’d want all that money secured upfront.
Insurance companies won’t touch it.
Of course. The US government would have to insure it. No private company is touching that with a 10 foot pole.
No company is going to trust insurance from this administration though. That’s the problem with having a Trump who famously never pays his debts.
Which is why I said insurance in escrow.
Trump is famous for stiffing people. I’d want that money paid upfront and held in escrow by an independent financial firm in a neutral nation.
If a ship gets hit, escrow pays out for the oil, the ship, and the loss of future earnings. If the ships never sink, the money goes back to the US.
Which couldn’t happen since the gvt is scrambling to get the money to prepare for tariff refunds
It’s not just normal insurance cost either. These ships take years to replace. They also have to insure against the multiple years worth of profits and loss of market share.
Exactly. It’s the ship, the goods, the lost earning over many years, severance for staff that won’t be used, etc. It would be mess.
I also wonder how clean up for a spill would be handled. Currently that’s managed by Iran and the vessel that spilled pays.
Also, if they sink in a bad spot, they’ll physically block the strait. It’s a narrow corridor that’s navigable.
Makes as much sense as suggesting you counter drones with cavalry.
Not drones exactly but this is a sound straregy in the early civilization games
The Shahed-136 uses a MD550 engine, spec sheet says that’s 50 horsepower. An actual horse has a peak output somewhere between 10 and 15 horsepower[1] so it should only take 4 or 5 horses to match/exceed the Shahed’s strength. Seems reasonable enough to me, it’s simple math.
Stevenson, Robert & Wassersug, Richard. (1993). Horsepower from a horse. Nature. 364. 195. 10.1038/364195a0. ↩︎
The math on the convoy doesn’t make sense to me.
The larger the convoy becomes a more attractive target, as a single salvo of missiles has greater chance of bypassing missile defences and hitting any target.
Plus they have drones or missile boats, which would be harder to defend against. You can do missile defence in a radius around a ship, but now there’s obstacles and small fast moving targets that only need to land 1 hit and can use blind spots.
So I guess you need 3+ navy ships to form a perimeter and guard a few tankers at once.
But now there’s mines, so your perimeter becomes another vulnerability, you’ve increased the surface area where mines can be.
So now you can add more navy ships to get better geometry but it’s a much higher cost.
Also, the US lies about what it is going to do all the time.
In fact, there is a big fat lie right in this article in which the US claimed to have already escorted a ship through despite the fact that they simply did nothing of the sort.
Would you be willing to stake the economic future of your company, the lives of your staff, and millions of dollars of equipment and product on the promise and competence of these guys?
Nice to see the US government still supporting EVs these days.
I still think that EV rebates and tax credits would be more cost efficient and much less jarring than provoking Iran into destroying 20% of the world’s oil supply… but I guess that I am too simple-minded for politics.
Gas is $5 near me. EVs are gonna start flying off dealer’s lots subsidy or not
No joke, electricity is getting so expensive that I was just about break even on running my PHEV on gas vs. electric… Then this happens to make the choice easy again
Well funding for those data centers are getting blown up… literally in the case of Amazon’s data center. So we might get to see that AI bubble pop that we have all been hearing so much about. That should help a little bit. Too bad Trump is offsetting that by cancelling all renewable projects though.
thats probably due to the AI slop datacenters hogging all the juice.
Please, someone tell me I’m not the only idiot that read this and thought they were trying to do the other type of mining.
The one that doesn’t make sense at all, but rather than realising that’s not the mining they were doing, because it doesn’t make sense. I just got more confused as to what they possibly could have found there worth mining for in the middle of a war.
I have you tagged as Old Fool for some reason. This comment makes that tag extra hilarious.
I know why :)
I see you’re calm since I stayed off your lawn.
If US politicians ever imposed consequences on rich elites we might have avoided having had to learn the lesson of consequences from Iran.
Wait, the uNazied States of america government blatantly lied? I’m shocked!!
