We get an analysis of the Trump administration’s Iran war strategy from former U.S. Army intelligence analyst Harrison Mann. “From day two of this war, the Trump administration has not known what to do and how to get out of this,” says Mann, who resigned from the U.S. Army’s Defense Intelligence Agency in 2024 over the Biden administration’s policy in Gaza. As Trump is rumored to be eyeing the oil export hub of Kharg Island for seizure, Mann gives his assessment of a potential ground invasion of Iran. “Any attempt to seize this island would be close to a suicide mission,” he says. While U.S. leaders struggle to respond to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on military bases in U.S.-allied Gulf states, Mann notes that “the people who drove [Trump] into this war pretty much expected this. I don’t think this is a surprise to Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio or Benjamin Netanyahu — who is very much getting what he wanted, which is dragging the U.S. into what he hopes will be a decisive war of annihilation against Iran.”

There’s only about 1,200 actual ground troops, which is a relatively small number if you’re talking about invading a country, even if it’s just seizing a small island.

It was less than two weeks ago that Trump policy was try to foment a Kurdish uprising and fracture Iran, right? They abandoned that in like 48 hours. Now we’re seeing him basically try and do policy by tweet and seeing if Europeans are willing to bail him out. Amy, as you mentioned, they’re absolutely not.

And I think it’s important to note that it’s — Donald Trump was probably surprised by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, by the attacks on all the Gulf states, by the skyrocketing oil prices. And we’re also going to see foodstuffs go up, because 30% of the world’s fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz, as well. But the people who drove him into this war are not dumb and very much expected this. I don’t think this is a surprise to Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio or Benjamin Netanyahu — who is very much getting what he wanted, which is dragging the U.S. into what he hopes will be a decisive war of annihilation against Iran.