China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Look a Lot Like Japan’s Lost Decade - CEOWORLD magazine
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China’s Property Slump Is Starting to Look Uncomfortably Familiar It is not often that the world’s second‑largest economy finds itself compared, in sober academic work, to Japan on the eve of its “Lost Decade.” Yet that is precisely where China’s real estate sector now sits: in what analysts describe as the middle passage of a […]

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/53072462

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[…]

The central risk is not a sudden systemic collapse, but a drawn‑out period of sub‑par growth, weak returns on investment, and fragile confidence—a pattern that will sound familiar to students of Japan’s post‑1990 trajectory.

Several specific challenges stand out:

  • Demographics: An aging, shrinking population caps housing demand and undermines the traditional link between urbanization and construction booms.
  • Balance sheets: Developers, local governments, and some financial institutions face long, grinding deleveraging cycles.
  • Policy trade‑offs: Stimulating housing too aggressively risks re‑inflating the bubble; tightening too hard risks tipping growth into a deeper downturn.
  • Confidence: Once households lose faith in property as a one‑way wealth escalator, rebuilding sentiment can take years.

[…]

  • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
    5·
    2 months ago

    You didn’t read or understand mine. You own your property in China the same way you own it in western countries. You have to pay to continue to own it in both countries, and they’re able to force you to sell if they want to build a highway where your house is, just like in western countries.

    • Hotznplotzn@lemmy.sdf.orgOPEnglish
      4·
      2 months ago

      You own your property in China the same way you own it in western countries.

      No, this is simply wrong.

    • AceOnTrackEnglish
      3·
      2 months ago

      I can’t lose my home for criticizing the government. I can fight an eminent domain claim and be compensated properly.

      • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
        5·
        2 months ago

        Same is true in China, they have laws lmao.

        I can’t lose my home for criticizing the government.

        Also you kinda can, eminent domain has famously been used against entire populations that a mayor, governor, or urban planner simply didn’t like.

          • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
            1·
            2 months ago

            So what do you not actually care about whether property ownership is meaningfully different in China vs western countries beyond its use as hostile evidence?

            • AceOnTrackEnglish
              1·
              2 months ago

              I care about good faith arguments, and you’re not making one.

              • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
                1·
                2 months ago

                I told you how things actually work, in both China and America, is anything that doesn’t reinforce preconceived notions bad faith to you?

                • AceOnTrackEnglish
                  1·
                  2 months ago

                  You’re using the USA, a country just as shit if not worse than China when it comes to human rights to try and make China look good.

                  That’s the bad faith argument.

                  • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
                    1·
                    2 months ago

                    1. Property isn’t a human right.

                    2. America is the easiest as I am most familiar with it since I lived there. There’s no European country I am aware of that doesn’t require you pay money to continue to own property, and have the ability to force you to sell at a price they pick, if they say they have a reason.

                    Yes, you can argue against them in court, that’s true in China too, and there are rare cases where the state doesn’t have a legal mechanism to do so, and the highway or w/e has to be routed around the home, that’s true in China too.