Inexpensive fiber-optic drones are challenging Israel’s high-tech defenses, shifting the military balance in the Middle East.
A recent video showing an explosive-laden drone striking an Israeli Iron Dome battery couldn’t have been more symbolic: Israel’s famous air-defense system, which cost billions of euros, looked powerless against a small aircraft that cost a few hundred euros.
While the video’s authenticity has not yet been verified, experts believe it is genuine.
The footage was published about a week ago by Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based pro-Iranian militia, which Germany, the US and several Sunni Arab states have classified as a terrorist organization.
The drone strike, if genuine, would mark propaganda victory for Hezbollah and reveal a significant vulnerability in Israel’s military capabilities.
How arrogant the Israeli leadership was to think it couldn’t happen to them when it’s been happening on the Ukrainian battlefield for a few years now. With Iranian-made drones no less.
Seriously, given how interconnected all these conflicts are, I’m convinced we are in WWIII,
No one said it has to have more deaths than the last one to be considered a world war
It probably already has, tbh.
2.6 million russian kia, more wounded - Russian economists in russian economic forums in public made a claim of 600k dead russians per year of war
That’s exaggerated. While real numbers are not known, Ukraine reports around 1,000 casualties per day but only around third or less of that are dead, others are injured.
Ukrainians have counted around 1.4 mill - but Ukrainians don’t have precise numbers on the russians killed by their own commanders for refusing to fight or not paying enough money to their commanders. The 2.4 mill number comes from russian economists in public russian economic forums this year.
Any other sources than economist? Russia matters talks about 325000 killed soldiers (Russia Matters). BBC News with Mediazona estimates between 300000-400000 dead soldiers on Russian side (BBC News Youtube.
Recently dead has been 2:1 over injured.
it is that, + Palestinians + Israelies + Iranians + Lebanense + Others
No that’s just russians. No other nationality in that count.
I mean, if we count this as a world war, we should add up all deaths
We should but I don’t have those numbers. I only have numbers for russians.
what’s wild are the killed vs injured ratios on the russian side… for years, they’ve just been leaving tremendous numbers to die on the field, and even when they’re recovered from the battle and recuperate, there’s no respite - they send the dumb bastards into the fight on crutches and torture anyone who objects.
I’m convinced we are in WWIII
I’ve heard people speculate that it’s more like WW5 or 6, depending on how you want to count global conflicts between superpowers.
But from the US perspective, we’re a far cry from the kind of Total War we engaged in during the 40s.
This war only feels existential if you’re on the receiving end.
Israel’s genocide is actually a sideshow. The real war is the fossil fuel industry versus the survival of humanity. Economics is no longer on their side, so they are using force, bribery, subversion, surveillance, the kitchen sink. We need to completely destroy them and asset-strip them. That’ll end the oil sheikhs, Putin, the global astroturf anti-environmentalist movement, and a few assholes in Texas and Alberta too.
I’m convinced we are in WWIII,
the preamble perhaps. the conflict that sets the stage.
fml, the idea that putin/bibi/trump ally so closely in their desire to destroy their own countries, and xi is like: let’s make more terawatts of solar power and help cuba - the world is stranger and darker every day.
ebola may finally hit globally, thanks to stupid cuts at cdc/who/usaid
and then there’s taiwan… just sitting there, all tempting, and the US having expended tremendous amounts of our arsenal for the iranian folly… gee whiz…
I agree, it has yet to devolve into a full scale world war, but I wouldn’t be surprised if China makes a move on Taiwan by 2030.
China will conquer Taiwan from within, same as they vanquished America from the #1 world slot.
Propaganda, won’t even have to fire a shot.
China will conquer Taiwan from within
if they could ever do that, don’t you think they’d have done it already?
do you have any evidence to support the idea that taiwanese attitudes have changed?
Dude you’re totally right. If someone hasn’t done something yet, then they’re never ever going to do that.
Insightful.
it’s a genuine inquiry about your response - China has long desired to recapture their ‘lost’ island (never was theirs but set that aside) and continues to run all kinds of pressure campaigns from political interference in Taiwanese government to artillery attacks on the outlying islands to pressuring the vast majority of the world to ignore their existence.
Taiwan has shown incredible resilience over decades and decades.
Now, if Trump robs them of the support and legitimacy, throws them to the wolves, all bets are off. Perhaps Taipei sees the writing on the wall - but man, I don’t see that going well either. Hong Kong illustrated - there is no separate peace, you get china, you get chinese rule and it’s not light handed.
It’s a shit sandwich, and the US has made it all worse with the iran bullshit draining our magazines, fleet deployments, and most importantly, resolve to stand up for our allies.
I’d be amazed if they wait that long. It would give us a chance to rebuild stockpiles.
I don’t think Taipei is at risk tomorrow, but holy hell this is gonna be a fraught year…
So who exactly is the allied vs axis
It’s Axis vs Axis this time.
Spy vs Spy.
Just because some of the belligerents are allied doesn’t make them Allied.
Enemy of my enemy… etc.
We absolutely are and have been for a while. People will catch up to reality one day.
After getting away with genocide in Gaza and the assadination of Nassrallah, they got arrogant and thought Hizbollah was not for
Hell, it happened to Armenia, with Israeli-made drones.
I’ve noticed that the UAE, who lobbied hard for the war, are now telling Trump to take the L.
I wonder the Israeli leadership is also near that point. This is Netanyahu’s war, let him face the consequences for it.
The footage was published about a week ago by Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based pro-Iranian militia, which Germany, the US and several Sunni Arab states have classified as a terrorist organization.
And where’s the parenthetical comma for Israel?
Israel, the arpartheid Jewish ethnostate, has been globally condemned for its violation of human rights and massive bombings with civilian casualties, is currently invading Lebannon in an effort to expand its territory.
Hezbollah is not a militia, it is a party (with a connected militia).
Also DW is the only german medium that is state funded
Oh no, do you hear that Israel? The faint buzzing off in the distance? That’s the sound consequences make when they’re getting closer.
Oh my god I get to watch a smiting with my own eyes. The cycle is nearly complete!
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God has rules
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God’s rules have loopholes
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God gets angry
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Get smote, nerd!
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Ok, new rules!
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Return to step 1.
They will literally do it until the heat death of the universe or until they’re wiped out.
That’s the problem with religion.
In theory it’s quite good most religions tell you to be nice and kind to each other, the problem is if you break those rules nothing actually happens to you, no God comes down from the heavens and strikes you down with righteous lightning. In fact not only does nothing happen to you but the establishment set up to promote the religion now protects you from the consequences of you breaking the religions own rules.
Might as well just become an investment banker, at least they don’t pretend to have rules.
That’s a problem with religion lol
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It seems that Iron Dome,like the Patriot, are desgned for the last war, not the current war. Asymmetric deployment of volumes of small&cheap units will overload these systems, or at least cost your opponent too much.
Even aganst peer weapons thay are onlyildly successful. In Ukraine the patriots have intercepted Kinzals,bit will never be able, nor cost effective against Oreshniks (as the split too early)
You mean America’s Iron Dome.
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May all day in Israel be like this!
That looks like a very safe, cost effective and extremely sustainable way to live. Definitely a normal country.
Wait until you hear about the IDF Cum Extractor Unit: a totally normal military squad focused solely on jerking off dead men and racial purity. Very normal.
Dude, I don’t know if that’s a dig at the depravity that exists in the IDF, or if that’s real, but I wouldn’t put it past them. Fucking Gross.
No that’s a totally real and normal thing the chosen people do. How do you preserve the racial purity otherwise?
I did see footage of a drone attacking an Iron Dome site. Looked legit for what it’s worth. Literally flew right up to it. Unfortunately no footage of the aftermath from what I saw. Must have been quite the explosion though. Anyway, this is hopeful news. Let’s hope they keep this up and force Israel to back the fuck off.
There is only one guarantee for Israeli security and that’s peace, deradicalization/dezionization (in the Matzpen sense, not in the ridiculous Yemelyanov sense), reparations, truth and reconciliation.
I’ve been wondering about this for a while, but what does it cost to maintain the iron dome when your batteries are depleted and the missiles are on backorder? It’s not like literally anyone else is fielding this equipment, so what happens when the only customer suddenly needs a tall order every week?
Under normal economic conditions, a tamir missile costs about $80k, and a shahed drone costs about $30k (and dropping). These are not normal conditions, and I expect that Israel is going to have spotty coverage in the coming years.
The worst part is that I’m sure Netanyahu and his ilk have priced all this in and agreed that the casualties and long-term dependence on foreign funding and ordnance is a fair trade for the additional territory. I really hope the Israeli people disagree.
I think that’s the point when they take it to the ‘negotiating table’ and try to keep what they’ve taken.
Having said that Israel has a large multilayered antiair defense that isn’t just iron dome. They have SPYDER, helos with the APKWS, and it’s own CIWS systems, plus they are rushing SMASH Hopper (AI driven improvised gun mount). Which isn’t to say your point is wrong, they will run out.
Also these last several years has turn people and their political leaders off Israel, which I mention as it just compounds the economics of this. Israel needs a functioning economy and foreign aid to sustain it, but has been turning off it’s partners. Although yes, the US seems to be an exception in this, mostly from a leader stand point.
They’re certainly making an impressive go of it, but I don’t see anything in their arsenal that’s going to survive sustained attacks.
SPYDER is so comically expensive that resisting long range drones will bankrupt the country, and automated turrets, while much better from a price per kill perspective, simply don’t have the range of other solutions (hundreds of meters at best rather than 40km of SPYDER or 5km of iron dome).
A better solution for the drones in the OP might be the new Rheinmetall platforms with airburst ammunition, but I’m not sure Israel can procure those in the numbers necessary to cover their defenses or infrastructure.
Rheinmetall platforms with airburst ammunition
There’s a reason you might not want to be firing shrapnel explosives over the heads of your own citizens.
But hey, it’s Israel. Maybe they don’t give a shit.
rheinmetall sell to anyone who has the money all the years germany was claiming it wouldn’t sell arms to saudi arabia rheinmetall was selling to them even building munitions factories in saudi arabia
That doesn’t mean there are not lead times.
Thats what America a is there for
what does it cost to maintain the iron dome when your batteries are depleted and the missiles are on backorder?
Iron Dome is specifically for short range rockets and mortars. David’s Sling is intended to defend against ballistic missiles like those used by Iran. The Arrow System is intended to counter ICBMs as part of a constellation of US based anti-ballistic systems. I’m not sure that last one has been used in more than test shots
trump’s first thought…“They shoulda went widda gold dome”.
“They rake the forests, they can iron the dome.”
Never going to not smirk at the israelis getting an L.
But be wary of media coverage of these kinds of drones. If you listen to The News, they are the greatest paradigm shift ever and you should totally give the military industrial complex even more trillions of dollars to find a solution!
The reality is that they are a lot closer to mortars than not. Comparatively short range and low payload weapons that are ridiculously cheap. Against an entrenched position with minimal defenses, they are devastating. But, ironically, most of the same defenses against mortars apply here too. They just tend to be ridiculously effective in Ukraine due to a mix of propaganda and how incredibly undisciplined russian conscripts are (see also: the idiots falling off of aircraft carriers in the us military). And… we aren’t THAT far off of basically connecting small arms, sensors, and simple motors up to shoot drones out of the sky in areas where we don’t care about collateral damage from falling bullets.
Don’t get me wrong. Cheap drones have very much changed the battlefield. But… closer to “affordable” night vision gear equalizing things rather than the initial advent of (good) night vision gear basically turning rich (read: US) militaries into invisible killing machines.
I’m not convinced that anti-mortar tech would be relevant. Drones are not ballistic and they can get under things and through openings.
There are two general cases where drones are useful (for combat, not just surveillance): Swarms and tactical/targeted strikes.
For a swarm? It is literally any other artillery barrage. You either find shelter or you die. It is just a case of the attackers spending a lot more money so that they don’t have easily detectable artillery pieces (or man portable mortars) to lug around
For targeted strikes? The advantage there is that quadrotors (et al) aren’t easily detectable by humans when they are high up in the air (shockingly easy for the kinds of mics that are already used to triangulate gunfire though… and there is some university research to amplify specific frequencies for “tactical” headphones). This means that an operator can essentially hover even 20-30 feet up above a target and then either drop the payload or fly it in.
At which point it is literally the same defense as mortars. The fancy kind of netting to reduce the effectiveness of airburst munitions (and prevent drones from reaching the juicy bit). Trenches/foxholes to minimize the damage caused by any one detonation. And… just closing the damned door on the APC.
What you are describing is something we mostly only see in video games and the Drone Racing League. The idea that you get above your target, swoop down, and do a trench run through the hallways to get to your high value target.
First? That pretty much gets stopped immediately if people just close doors and windows.
But more importantly? You need to be a DAMNED good pilot to do that at speed so that you can’t be stopped in time. And you need ridiculously effective real time intel. Because if that HVT walked down the hallway to inappropriately flirt with Private Pyle? Your ace drone pilot is now blowing up a few random admins and not the Super General or whatever.
Which more or less becomes the same issues as mortars but with an added bit of snipers: “Important” people don’t stand near windows.
Drones, like mortars, are still pretty effective at harassing infantry and breaking up (poorly) entrenched positions. One of the most infamous examples of this is the Benghazi embassy attack. Most reports (so grain of salt) put the contractors as being REALLY good at shooting back. But when the attackers did a bit of math (allegedly weeks earlier…) and dropped mortars on their asses, it basically collapsed the defenses.
And… obviously drones are super effective at going after civilian targets. Same as mortars (or high angle grenade launchers, according to a certain nazi running for the Senate in Maine…).
But this is also something we “solved” back in World War 1 and 2. Which… is a big chunk of why the war in Ukraine is a lot closer to a WW2 battlefield than not.
It’s a new kind of war when one of your best defences is a jar of pickles.
\o/
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The key tonthe article isnt that it got through, ita that the thing that got through is cheap and mass producable. The modern drone battlefield has changed the landscape of war.
they’re taking a page from ukraine on asymmetric warfare and just following the playbook russia and ukraine have been escalating with drone warfare. and iran can get fiber optic from china just like russia.
this is something people aren’t understanding, the disparity in costs - sure western customers can shoot patriots at incoming, but if it’s a $12k shaheed the cost disparity is nosebleed, but you can’t NOT shoot at incoming because the costs of targets on the ground is also nosebleed expensive.
Fuck, iran bagged an E3 sentry awacs on the ground! Millions of dollars of STRATEGICALLY valuable asset, nuked on a fucking tarmac, because some dumbfuck decided to follow Israel into this shitshow.
I fucking hate the term “nothingburger”. Just lazy, dismissive bullshit. If you can’t see the significance of this, that’s on you.
I mean, no shit.
The hubris in thinking that your limited-number missiles can’t be overwhelmed by sheer numbers ffs.
