- cross-posted to:
- fuck_ai@lemmy.world
- goodnewseveryone@piefed.social
- usa@lemmy.ml
- cross-posted to:
- fuck_ai@lemmy.world
- goodnewseveryone@piefed.social
- usa@lemmy.ml
cross-posted from: https://toast.ooo/post/12317935
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How can we make that sooner?
use their cheapest plan, burn their tokens, burn the hole in their budget. could backfire though as then “clever analysts” will claim that demand is up and eager bankers will shell out more cash
Or educate the people around you that “AI” is not the magical fairy dust machine that can do anything imaginable. Might be better than giving them any money at all.
The people actively using AI are not an issue of lacking education on how bad it is. Just a quick example is of an upper management asshole who absolutely “loves” AI. Reality is they shit out slop but their direct reports undo the damage to protect their jobs. I know of more than a few developers in a tough spot where they are credit card slaves so work invisible overtime to compensate. They did this to themselves and are trapped in AI hell.
Interesting perspective. Software development works different where I come from, the dev part is still very much in control of the developers themselves. However the management lives in delusionville and the expectations are pretty much insane compared to the reality of the actual turnout. My comment above was more about educating the general public… AI results can look pretty compelling unless you decide to have a closer look, and a lot of non-dev people are falling for it. Either because they are dumb and gullible, lack analytic thinking or because they have no real contact with AI and are just exposed to the hype through the media.
it’s one of those things that people need to ask about things they are an expert at so they can understand how valuable the results really are.
I was a software consultant with “architect”* experience for the last 10 years of my career or whatever you want to call it. 50~80% of my job was basically saying the same thing their in house developers were saying. Maybe the other half was pushing tech stack upgrades (CVS -> SVN -> Git/Perforce ), (CGI to basically anything else), etc etc. My least favorite role was being a hatchet man, eg one of the Bobs from office space.
Professionally I used a shit ton of analogies and metaphors. Absolute most effective was comparing new feature development to an electrician adding a new light or receptacle. You may find you need to upgrade the service panel (database or other services), it can take time to pull new lines and doing so can interfere with existing equipment. Finally you can only pull so many new cables through an existing building before you need to do necessary cleanups and rearrangements (eg refactoring). Failing to do so may lead to brown outs (crashes) or the entire building catching on fire (eg Microsoft Dumpster Fire 11). Last bit is you can help explain the complexity of a feature as top floor, mid level, or basement (eg “soonish”).
* Architect title/role was something I would try my best to bury. The companies that needed an Architect only figure that out when they discover MS Access DB isn’t going to work /s but only a little bit. Also what the fuck is an “Architect”, its not like any of our titles have any national standards.
This video is kind of triggering my deep seated hatred of MBA’s but if you ever want to explain to the normies what your job is like, “The Expert” https://youtu.be/BKorP55Aqvg is perfect.
Yeah, I can relate. I’ve been doing consultant work and I always tried to avoid being pushed into the “architect” role. My background for over 25 years was software development and we had a lot of success with agile methods (doing it right is hard but viable and it produces quality software) My experience is that a good dev team does not need an “architect” to tells them what’s best. But all of this is now gone anyway, or at least taking an extended break. At the moment no one is investing in development teams, and the prospect of being able to fire all the developers because AI can do their job now is making CEOs giddy everywhere. Not going to happen (and this should be obvious for anyone who can judge the quality of code or the effectiveness of processes in terms of reliability, quality, cost, performance etc.) but that doesn’t stop them from trying.
I framed the “AI” craze as parallel to self checkout kiosks. They were sold as the future and a way of getting rid of those pesky human workers. Reality is they’re an open wound on the company. Unfortunately it will cost more money to get rid of them so they’re still there.
That’s the difference with AI currently. Cancel your subscription, toggle it to off in your IDE, and its gone. I believe this is why they’re trying to push “AI” everywhere, hoping it will stick somewhere.
Otherwise I liked a well manged agile development process. Heck of a lot less stressful than water fall.
edit: fax spalling erwor
Adjacent comment: Using the electrician analogy, AI is like one of those really cool gadgets you see on Temu that don’t actually do half of what they claim and will probably burn the building down. Another analogy is AI are like Roomba’s: they kinda work, take forever to finish, clog up easily, and are guaranteed to miss a lot of stuff.
An air conditioning device that needs no pipe to the outside you say? It defeats the laws of thermodynamics for only 99€? Shut up and take my money!
/s
Oh I like that but you might scare the MBA’s using techno babble like “thermodynamics” :)
educating people doesnt work very often. people do not give a shit about what’s going on inside or behind of their glowing rectangle machine.
Why burn tokens when datacenters are much more flammable
Start with the gas turbines
That would definitely backfire. The best approach against any corporation is not to use them and let their name be forgotten, therefore, the shares losing value and becoming less and less attractive to investors
The most expensive plan gets you more tokens per unit of currency actually (10x cost for 20x usage), but it’s pretty expensive and there’s not actual guarantee that they’re still losing money on your subscription in 2026 and as you pointed out, being able to show demand and MRR will get them more loans.
Look to your superannuation plan. Most providers have a conservative plan that’s little or no shares. If lots of people transfer the message will be loud and clear. At that point the markets will dump AI and things will eventually normalize. I suspect this is already where the elite have their money, given the present warnings.
Nah.
The more people divest the more appealing these investments are.
So more AI losses per investor. Shares are just like card collecting it only goes up if the demand is increasing. Right now I suspect it’s reached maximum insanity and is ripe for a correction.
I’m sure the big players are betting Trump will bailout AI companies. They don’t have to worry. So they keep pumping the share prices.
That’s not true.
It can feel that way when you think as shares as numbers on a computer but they represent a share in the ownership of a country and presumably that ownership is actually worth something.
If no one wants to invest because of the vibe, then you can buy the shares for a bargain.
Maybe it’s a bit like buying a house where someone was murdered. If you don’t care about the vibe then the reduced demand means you can get a bargain.
You can argue the shares are grossly overvalued, and that may be true, but my point is that shares have an intrinsic value and if demand reduces it increases the appeal to other investors.
Get a sniper rifle and shoot their generators.
Nah. They lose money every time you use their shitty services. Sabotage would actually improve their cashflow.
Only by using a significant amount of power and water
Oh boy, I can’t wait for my tax dollars to go to bailing them out instead of food and healthcare
Ah right, they’re “too big to fail”.
Don’t worry, we can’t bail them out this time. There’s just not enough money, each bailout is exponentially bigger than the last one and this time the bubble is bigger than the rest of the global economy
We’ll probably destroy the global economy buying them just a few more months anyways though
It’s also arguably the only thing propping up the American economy right now. They don’t have anything to bail with, if the AI bubbles goes on fire. Their economy may well come tumbling down in short order.
I don’t think you even have to argue it. If you move the top 7 from the us economy, the US has been in recession for about a year I think.
pretty sure as soon as the strategic reserve is at minimum levels the gas prices will pop the economy just like in 08, looking at fuel prices, there is some consensus that the derivatives bubble and the economy was accelerated or contributed by the big spike then too, for what its worth here is a snippet from a longer conversation with claude the other day about the timing and effects…
“The timing is on your side. Oil peaked around $147 in July 2008, but Lehman didn’t collapse until September 15, and the bulk of the crash to the $30s happened over September–December, right on top of the acute credit panic. So the dominant driver of that specific collapse was the financial crisis — a credit freeze, a global trade contraction, forced deleveraging, and a stampede out of commodity speculation — not primarily consumers and firms conserving because gasoline got expensive. Presenting $147→$30s as a clean “high price destroyed demand” story conflates a financial/credit event with a price-response event, exactly as you say. Fair hit. The honest nuance is that they’re entangled rather than fully separable. James Hamilton — probably the leading economist on oil-and-macro — argued in a 2009 Brookings paper that the oil spike itself was a meaningful contributor to the recession, not just a bystander: US miles driven and gasoline demand had already rolled over in late 2007 and early 2008, before Lehman, and the auto-heavy parts of the economy were buckling under fuel costs first. His stronger claim was that the oil shock alone might have produced a recession even without the financial crisis. That’s a contested, minority-leaning view — the mainstream reading is still that the financial crisis dominated — but it means high oil wasn’t innocent; it was one of the stressors loading an already over-levered system. So the two didn’t just coincide, they reinforced each other. And here’s the deeper point your question exposes, which is worth more than the correction itself: it’s genuinely hard to find a clean example of price-alone demand destruction, because oil spikes and recessions almost always travel together. Spikes help cause recessions, and recessions crush oil demand, so they arrive as a package — you rarely get to observe the price-conservation channel in isolation. That entanglement is real, and I was papering over it. The cleaner illustration of the structural piece — the permanent kind of demand destruction — is the aftermath of the 1970s shocks. Global and especially US oil demand fell durably through the early 1980s and didn’t recover for years: fuel economy standards, switching oil out of power generation and home heating, industrial efficiency. That’s the sliver that sticks even after the economy recovers, and it’s isolatable precisely because it persisted past the recovery — though even there the Volcker recession is a confounder, so it’s not perfectly pure either. So let me refine the claim rather than abandon it. 2008 is a fine illustration that a demand collapse crashes the oil price, but a poor illustration that the high price alone caused the collapse. My underlying point — that $150–200 oil is self-limiting — still holds, but the mechanism is better stated as: high oil prices help trigger or deepen a recession, and/or a coincident recession does the demand-crushing, and it’s that demand collapse (from whatever mix of causes) that breaks the price. Pure price-induced conservation is the slower, structural component I described last turn, not the fast circuit-breaker. The circuit-breaker is the recession — which, as you’re implying, may have its own separate ignition source and just happens to also torch oil demand on the way down.”
Conversations with LLMs are absolutely worthless as a source of knowledge.
they are great for doing a lot of web research into complex subjects, create an inventory of the most provelant discussions and historical precedents and form all that into an easy to read report. Since the llm is not the source of knowledge but the search engine, your comment is absolutely worthless as a coherent reply to my post
No, LLMs are not a search engine, that’s not how they work. They process and regurgitate text, and even in such “simple” uses there is risk of hallucination.
Your conversation with a LLM is absolutely worthless as a coherent reply to anything.LLM’s are search engines by their nature, but on top of that they have search engines they reference, they have powerful grepping and search tools to iterate through those results come up with the prevailing theories and outliers and present that as an organized report to you, unless you can find something that is factually incorrect about my statement you are arguing against what you are seeing with your eyes which i dont quite get
Also, and the point that everyone here is missing, bailouts have an end point.
Giving them tax payer’s money still won’t make them profitable after the VC money goes away.
Better start preparing to grind the economy to a halt when they try it. This time any occupy Wall Street movements should be heavily armed and wearing plate carriers
Maybe Americans are finally going to use their second amendment for the intended purpose?
We can only hope. But the left wing of the working class needs to wake up and realize they have that right too; and get armed if they are not already.
didnt the us gov already get like 5% of the company, laying the groundwork of they cant fail bullshit ?
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While I agree with not buying being better that giving them money. I can’t agree with leadership being smart.
This thing was never going to be profitable. So they either:
a) they’re actively malicious — they were never planning on profiting which means this is basically a pump and dump scheme capable of triggering some form of recession;
b) they’re fucking morons for believing their own fantasies, which judging by their public appearances would track.Former seems just as plausible, but my bet is on the latter. These AI bro CEOs seem to be woefully average at best.
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I want this response to be higher. This is an excellent take.
I’ve worked too many places where “b” is absolutely the answer. Even small companies that you’ve probably never heard of where management is drinking the koolaid. They usually don’t like being asked why someone would actually pay for whatever bullshit they’re selling. The answer, almost without exception, is because one of their CEO buddies told them it was a good idea.
Counterpoint:
They already are losing money. They themselves do not project that they will be profitable until 2030. The idea that “smart people with spreadsheets won’t let them lose money” is obviously wrong because they have done nothing except lose money, ever.
They get thier operating capital from funding, not sales.
Now, I agree that the gambit is wrong. So you’re right. You’re just right for the wrong reason.
Funding is just the cash value of market optimism for the future of your product. High usage props up optimism. Social media IPOs were valued very much based on active users, the idea being that more users meant more opportunity for profit.
The more people actively using these tools, even if they’re just maliciously burning tokens, just add to the “active users” metric. Which makes funding easier. And funding is the ACTUAL way these companies “make thier money”.
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Yeah, I conceded that your call to action was correct.
Just wanted to add colour so people understand the mechanics at play. When you understand them, it lets people evaluate other things, without needing you to tell them what to do.
For example, if your comprehension of these companies is that the companies are acting with the goal of profitability l, they would see something like a fast-track onto an index post IPO as a bid for legitimacy, some kind of ego play.
If you comprehend it as a beast that can only subsist on funding with no viable product, it entirely changes how you comprehend the post IPO index listing desire.
Despite the popular fantasy, the rich and powerful are not stupid.
Uh… famously untrue. Mental illness has plagued monarchs, pharaohs, and caesers for millennia. That’s long before you get to all the quirked up white boys and trad rad girl bosses currently running things.
You don’t know more about a company or market from passively consuming headlines than the leadership of that company.
Okay, but you can review their balance sheets and their primary lines of credit. Case in point, Sam Altman is heavily reliant on three big financial partners - Softbank, Oracle, and NVIDIA. Two of these are - themselves - hemorrhaging money thanks to large capital outlays that have failed to produce substantive returns.
There are finance journalists who get out ahead of this and report their own analysis. And you can find that in a thousand different private journals, substacks, and podcasts. But you can also go do the grunt work yourself if you’re ambitious.
OpenAI’s financials have been disclosed already (although the official SEC filing is still upcoming). So… just read them if you doubt what you’re reading in the news. But it’s not some kind of secret that the business is operating at a loss, with a fixation on debt-fueled growth. The argument is over future projected revenue, which isn’t something business leadership can be any more certain of than a passive media consumer.
I definitely get the knee-jerk impulse to announce “business professionals know more about business than internet idiots”. Because, sure. True. But the idea that business professionals don’t routinely make bad decisions has some pretty historic well-established counterpoints.
“The business people know more” line is akin to saying “This used car dealer must know more about the vehicles on his lot than I do, so I can trust him”.
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Regardless, it should be fairly obvious that giving a company you hate money will not cause them to fail faster.
I’ll concede that trying to soak Altman for $14k/mo when he’s already hemorrhaging billions is a bit like pissing in the river.
I might ask what you plan to do with the $14k in tokens you’re burning. If you’ve got a material use case for them, and Altman wants to sell you $20 for a nickel, go wild.
But half the joke of AI is that you’re burning tokens to do nothing. That’s why businesses recoil as soon as they’re asked to justify at-cost AI spend.
“every little bit helps” said the old woman as she pissed in the sea . . .
The only way to stop them is give them more money.
I think companies these days are more about valuation (how much people think they are worth) vs profit (what they actually earn). AI companies are loss leaders, yet vcs still fund them anyways. Paying them more money will just add to hype and valuation (eg “our XX service grew YY% which projects to ZZ potential profit”)
Despite the popular fantasy, the rich and powerful are not stupid.
Hubris is what the rich and powerful suffer from, not stupidity. And hubris makes the same blind decisions as stupidity.
Right on point
Bailout in 3…2…1…
I sincerely hope not. Yet… quite a few things that can’t happen have been happening.
I see a lot of people in this thread stating and insisting that people should give them more money, which fells so surreal. I guess people’s mind have been shaped into consumerism to such a degree that they can’t think about a solution to things that doesn’t involve buying something anymore. It’s so hard to believe
I agree with you that nobody here should purchase a subscription with any of these companies, but I will watch happily from the sidelines while AI fanatics engage in this exact behavior, jumping from loss leader to loss leader.
The leaders of the companies are not stupid. If they started seeing a net loss from their sales strategy, they’d change strategies.
Unless money is not the goal. Not the sole goal at least. As you said, they’re not stupid. It’s entirely within reason to assume they may be aiming for more than just money.
Who knows what they’re planning. Nothing good for us - that’s for sure.
How can we make them run out in mid-2026?
I was under the impression that they had an extremely large amount of negative money.
If Skyrim has taught me anything it’s probably integer overflow
Since their current cash wouldn’t fit in a 32-bit integer that’d mean it’s at least 64-bit. An integer underflow would require a debt of over 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 units-of-currency before it rolled over to positives.
Man, this bubble is even bigger than I thought! /s
Fire
baseball bats with nails in them!?
my guy asking the real questions!
Mid-2026? How about right now? :)
That’s the same thing… oh dog time is flying
I was hoping for yesterday but true, we really are halfway done aren’t we…
Yes but you have forgotten about the technique used by the most skilled and intelligent company leaders to consistently outperform all predictions for years now: Corruption
Ah yes, the most profitable business
I will happy when this bubble bursts. OpenAI, Grok and several other companies offer nothing substantive and if they’re burning cash and disrupting economies then just die already.
offer nothing substantive
Like industrial farming, there is nothing new, but now everybody can create memes and create software. Society will change.
Come on, burn faster!
Doesn’t matter. The regime got what they wanted out of this. The data centers are up, the tech is there, they will just snap it up cheap for use in surveillance and fabricating evidence of dissenters.
The data centres are far from up. Many of them look to have a few steel beams in place and that’s it. Others are sitting empty due to lack of hardware or lack of power.
The datacenters largely aren’t built yet, as someone else pointed out. That doesn’t even matter though, to your point.
The Epstein class has successfully destroyed large portions of the Internet through bot traffic. They’ve scraped virtually all human contributions and stolen it, while ruining traditional vehicles for information gathering. They’ve eviscerated consumer hardware, and thus shifted control of compute away from the masses. They’ve successfully manufactured consent for mass surveillance including harvesting our biometric data.
Once the AI bubble bursts, it will be one of the largest transfers of wealth in history as they force us to bail out this fradulent industry. If it doesn’t throw us into another great depression, the damage it will do will ensure that things never go back to how they were pre-AI. Once that reality becomes apparent to the masses, they’ll be primed and ready for Peter Theil’s vision of “Freedom Cities”
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I hope so
It will be a race which AI company holds out longest. All of them are making losses that no company can survive, and if they rise their prices enough to cover the costs, they will basically lose all their customers. Who will then struggle to hire the people back who still know how to do things without AI.
I think they could significantly lower their costs if they turn their focus away from the race to “AGI.” But, their valuations don’t really make sense unless investors believe they will achieve AGI.
I was there when the “Neural Networks” idea started. They thought they could program NNs to achieve AGI. Now they think they can do it with LLMs. But LLMs are just parrots with a large dictionary. They won’t reach that point, either. An LLM is way too much rooted in words to be able to think.
Recent models are quite good. Like gpt 5.6 sol. Even better than mythos 5.
How is this a response to a comment about AGI?
LLMs are not currently, nor ever will be, anything remotely resembling AGI. AGI is still entirely within the realm of science fiction, like teleportation or time travel.
Hey, we have AGI! We’ve had it for years! It’s called making babies 😎😎😎😎😎
That’s true. I’m just saying the models do get better and are quite impressive now.
But whatever the term means. I know where AGI stands for, but the term “agi” is still very vague. You can’t compare a machine llm model with the human brain.
Yet still hallucinates mass bullshit and can’t count, can’t architect, and can’t write a decent test
The “best” one I’ve tried is the latest Opus. I don’t trust any of them to use for real work, so I mostly just play around with a local Qwen 3.6 27B or Deepseek v4 Flash. I have heard OpenAI’s latest models produce less bloat than Anthropic’s.
I should say I do find LLMs useful as a kind of search agent (both web and large unfamiliar code bases). And GhidraMCP is pretty cool (maybe just because I don’t have much experience with reverse engineering).
“grim”
Some big company would invest in openai to keep the bubble alive.
That’s how they’ve been operating for years. They’ll go public soon enough though, so your 401k will take the hit instead of the parasites on top.
That’s what the SpaceX IPO was about. They were listed on the NASDAQ way earlier than companies are normally allowed to be so the assholes up top could raid your retirement fund despite there being no path to profitability.
I can’t fathom how people actually contribute to a 401k when it’s run by Wall Street ghouls that stole everyone’s money 20 years ago and never suffered any consequences for it…
Because that’s the game. If you don’t play it, they continue to make more and more, while your money decreases in value due to inflation. Best you can do is try to be the bird in the rhino’s back, picking up fleas and scraps.
Fingers crossed! Let it burn.
Oh no. That is another whole year to wait.
Well they most likely get bailed out by the government
Q3 2027 is when the house of cards falls. I have been saying this since 2025 and I will continue to make this prediction based off of loan and investment terms.
I agree with this.
That lines up on the technical side, too, with how LLM “intelligence” is plateauing, cost of cheaper models is decreasing, where open weights are going and such. Q3 2027 seems about when an OpenAI coding subscription makes no sense.
That being said, I’d be wary of the “Facebook effect.”
Once a service gains a huge foothold, it can deteriorate for a long time without going away. Especially with regulatory capture. And for many smartphone users, OpenAI is the only AI they know.
The difference here is OpenAI has no revenue, Facebook has plenty of advertising revenue.
That’s where advertising through AI comes in. People relying on AI suffer from cognitive deterioration which is the perfect opportunity to sneak in advertisements disguised as suggestions through AI responses.
That long? Sigh…
He’ll probably tell Trump he’ll help win the election and get all sorts of tax payer handouts.
