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The last time this happened was in 1906 when Arthur Balfour lost his seat in the Manchester East constituency during the Liberal landslide victory.

Edit: Balfour resigned as PM in December in 1905 in an attempt to force an election. The Liberal Henry Campbell-Bannerman instead managed to form a government and thus was PM at the time of 1906 general election. I had forgotten Balfour resigned. So, yes if Sunak is unseated this will be a political first (for the UK at least).

You’re are quite right of course. Two main weaknesses of these opinions polls, regardless of the methodology are:

1. the outcome is based on the moment the question was asked and;

2. the complex reality of voter behaviour is simplified by assuming that the change in support for each party from one election to the next is the same across all constituencies. Which fails to take into consideration the following:

Regional variations, new candidates and Issues and finally tactical voting.

So yeah in a nutshell these polls are utterly meaningless but in the absence of a crystal ball something is better than nothing, despite the crude nature of the something.

Bit harsh re: clickbaiting etc.

And by the looks of things it seems like I was right it has (so far) spectacularly backfired. Obviously we have to wait for the second round but…

Sadly, that is the case 😔

While an argument can be made whether this is art I’m not sure it fits in the category of traditional of is.

My favourite scene from that film…

Thank you. You might find this of interest >> RHS - Ophrys apifera. My soil is fairly ‘alkaline’ and ‘loamy’. Although I reside in a major city the area I live in is essentially rural and so these wild flowers aren’t uncommon. That being said I used to only have one bee orchid every two years but recently I am having one every year and each year I am getting a number ‘colonies’. This year I have five clumps of bee orchids in the front lawn. Oddly, none have been spotted in the back, which is south facing. So I can only assume that these plants don’t thrive in direct sunlight.

Lamentable but copyright is a critical mechanism for protecting the rights of creators.

Thanks - already have done 👍🙂

This is raw but beautiful.

I’m not a labour supporter but I would be happy to see the conservatives reduced to 43 or less.

Oh that’s good…very good. 😂🤣

Personally, I think the more the narrative is framed around Labour winning a ‘super majority’ the opposite might actually be the case. If think Labour are going to win with such a majority will Labour supporters a) still vote and b) would they still vote for Labour - they could afford the vote for another centre-left party as the outcome is not going to change - however the more that people think like that the greater the risk the epic landslide ebbs away. Still can’t see Reform making a breakthrough (which incidentally, this poll has Reform on zero seats).

I would have thought Biden supporters would support Biden. This is hardly a revelation.

Sometimes I wonder why America is a called “the land of the free”.

Like I said: a dangerous gamble with the Fifth Republic…

An unprecedented move which could backfire as it did for Chirac in 1997. Macron is playing a dangerous gamble with the Fifth Republic… 🗳️🇫🇷