• OberonSwanson@sh.itjust.works
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    2 months ago

    Of course it is, it’s essentially a scam. They just need enough humans to keep investing until they check out and run with a bailout.

    • DeckPacker@piefed.social
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      2 months ago

      Funny thing is, the US government doesn’t even have nearly enough money to bail all these mfa out. So we are heading into uncharted territory here

      • OberonSwanson@sh.itjust.works
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        2 months ago

        Of course they don’t, that’s why they’re building bunkers. Thinking it’ll slow us down, as we’ll open their bunkers like cans of tuna. A bunker only works for so long, then the survivors start hunting for them like delicious shipwrecks.

      • Arghblarg@lemmy.ca
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        2 months ago

        And that’s why they’re trying underhanded tactics to inflate earnings and IPO directly into the index funds, so every American’s 401K will legally have to rebalance and invest in them. They’re racing to fleece retirement funds before the bubble bursts.

        Not financial advice, of course :p but people should really consider getting their stuff out and into self-directed funds or whatever it is US people do to not depend on auto-allocated funds.

    • Yliaster@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      I don’t get why companies get to legally bailout like this. Why do people have to suffer for their bullshit? Enslave the CEOs if you have to make things right, leave the people out of it.

      • Shellofbiomatter@lemmus.org
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        2 months ago

        That’s simple, because the people making laws and overseeing the adherence to those laws are great buddies with those same CEOs.

        So, corruption.

        Though i do agree with you, there is no such thing as too big to fail. Government shouldn’t have any handouts to corporations.

        • Yliaster@lemmy.world
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          2 months ago

          These levels of corruption are frustrating; money shouldn’t decide the law.

          No handouts to corporations, indeed. Make them pay.

      • Wildmimic@anarchist.nexus
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        2 months ago

        Both Uber and Spotify (and AWS too) had economics of scale going for them - the more users they have, the more the infrastructure could be leveraged. This does NOT work for LLMs. More users means using more compute, more advanced tasks (like coding) uses exponential amounts of compute. A single user running a complex task can make 8 Blackwell GPUs run full tilt, and you don’t even have any guarantee that the output will be useable.

        There are a few narrow areas where LLMs might be successful, like scanning for security vulnerabilities or searching large amounts of documents. The massive amount of money invested will never be recouped with these usage scenarios.

      • T156@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        Although, most people aren’t talking about Alphafold when they’re talking about AI. They’re usually specifically referring to the generative transformer models that are currently all the rage.

        I doubt anyone would care too much about a linear regression model, or multi-layer peceptron , for example.

      • ThirdConsul@lemmy.zip
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        2 months ago

        solving something like the Erdős unit distance conjecture

        Tell me you listen to media news cycle without understanding what that actually mean without telling me that.

        That’s not exactly what happened, isn’t it.

        Not to bring up what’s also been accomplished in cyber security

        Multiple new vectors of attacks, automation of attack pipelines…

  • 🍉 DrRedOctopus 🐙🍉@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    reminder than during 2019 there were streaming services popping left and right, all showing tremendous growth because they started from zero, and articles were about how bad Netflix was doing due to having practically no growth compared with the competition (they already had a massive subscriber base). Twist? Netflix was the only streaming service that was actually making a profit, the rest were a massive loss but big growth.

    Needless to say most of those streaming services died; who remembers DC streaming service, or Yahoo’s? While Netflix is basically as stong as ever, despite the prevalent enshitification happening through the whole industry.

    Point of the story? shareholders don’t care about stable profitable business, only cancerous growth. AI is like that, zero profits, ton of cost, but as long as they show growth the shareholders are happy, regardless of how cooked the books are.

    • MimicJar@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      2019 Yahoo

      My immediate thought, there is no way Yahoo! Screen survived into 2019.

      I looked it up and Yahoo! Screen (which featured Community season 6) was shutdown in January 2016. But Yahoo! View launched in late 2016 (as a Hulu-like replacement), and that did shutter in mid 2019.

      So Yahoo! was already dead, but it also died for real in 2019.

          • elucubra@sopuli.xyz
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            2 months ago

            Actually, when Yahoo was the search giant, before Google went mainstream, they were pretty damn good at what they did.

            • JohnEdwa@sopuli.xyz
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              2 months ago

              With how shit Google is these days, I kinda wonder if Yahoo could dust out their search engine from two decades back and it would just be… better.

              • Axolotl@feddit.it
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                2 months ago

                Yahoo had it’s own web crawler only between 2004 and 2009, then they made a deal with Microsoft to use Bing indexes, so i highly doubt they even have their old index

    • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      who remembers DC streaming service, or Yahoo’s?

      Quibi will always have a place in my heart. Or, at least, my golden arm

      • 🍉 DrRedOctopus 🐙🍉@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        late to streaming, but practically the first subscription based system to watch movies/tv online.

        First years of Netflix were the best, the product began degrading quite early on. but that was mostly companies realizing that instead of licensing their content on Netflix, they can make their own platforms.

        • Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works
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          2 months ago

          I think people forget that there is also the problem of being “too early” where people or the technology isn’t ready yet. Netflix timed their entry perfectly.

          There are so many defunct websites or businesses that no one has ever heard of that were precursors to modern day services we view as conveniences.

  • Fubarberry@sopuli.xyz
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    2 months ago

    Honestly Google is likely to beat openAI and Anthropic as things are.

    OpenAI and Anthropic have to buy/rent their hardware from Nvidia, while Google is making their own TPU hardware. Google’s hardware costs on AI is way lower, every dollar they spend on it goes a lot farther.

    And unlike the other two, they’re already a profitable company. They’re making record profits right now. They don’t have a desperate need to figure out how to make back billions on their AI models, they can just keep offering Gemini at a comparatively cheap price and wait for anthropic and open AI to bankrupt themselves.

    • SunshineJogger@feddit.org
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      2 months ago

      I really really really don’t want evil corporation Google to dominate even more.

      I prefer plailny greedy corporations over evil ones

      • Fubarberry@sopuli.xyz
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        2 months ago

        That’s definitely costing them more than running it on their own hardware, but it doesn’t mean AI is costing them more than the AI startups. Anthropic for example is already paying SpaceX 1.25 Billion a month for compute, and has agreed to pay Google 200 billion over the next 5 years for access to Google’s compute and TPU chips.

        Google’s deal with xAI specifically lets them terminate the deal with 90 days notice after the end of the year. Google is also investing heavily in building new data centers with their hardware. I’m assuming this deal means they’ve eclipsed their current TPU capacity, and are just looking for a short term bandaid until they can catch up with their new constructions.

    • zbyte64@awful.systems
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      2 months ago

      I guess google’s announcement of renting xai compute could have been simply for show to boost SpaceX ipo.

      • Fubarberry@sopuli.xyz
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        2 months ago

        They have big plans to build more data centers for themselves, so they definitely want more compute than the have access to right now. But even if they’re paying more to rent xai compute, they’re still paying less overall for hardware/access than their direct AI competition.

  • some_guy@lemmy.sdf.org
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    2 months ago

    It’s gonna come crashing down pretty soon. It’s gonna hurt all of us. It won’t hurt the people responsible nearly enough.

      • Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works
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        2 months ago

        What people? All the credible people I read say that things fall apart Q2/Q3 2027 as debt and profit obligations are due.

        The only thing that changed is now there is an energy crisis coming, so it’s possible that might force the bubble to pop sooner if all the systemic risk aligns.

      • some_guy@lemmy.sdf.org
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        2 months ago

        Only because the hype has lasted longer than expected. Now that IPOs have been filed, the AI companies (Anthropic, OpenAI) released statements about slowing down to protect us. They’re setting the stage for lower growth. But I think you should invest every penny you have into “SpaceXMegaTwitterSuperCarAI”.

  • adarza@piefed.ca
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    2 months ago

    so these crazy prices i hear about being implemented (like at github) should actually be at least 10x higher?

      • megopie
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        2 months ago

        To break even on operating expenses, not even counting debt payments, depreciated capital value, or future recapitalization costs.

        • toebert@piefed.social
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          2 months ago

          *Operating expenses before nvidia raises their prices so they can somehow make the line go up enough to justify it’s massive evaluation.

    • Scrollone@feddit.it
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      2 months ago

      Exactly, I just keep using the free plan and when I finish the amount for the day I just switch to another service

      • iocase@lemmy.zip
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        2 months ago

        This is why IMO blitz scaling is dumb when your service is a commodity. I’m not any more loyal to Uber than Skip. If more investor money goes into making a cheaper meal or ride on Skip I use that. Consumers are mercenaries about that stuff.

        The “blitz” part of blitz scaling assumes your customers can’t move.

  • mfed1122@discuss.tchncs.de
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    2 months ago

    I mean, this is no different than Walmart making prices low until other businesses die out and then raising them.

    It is no different than police shoving all the homeless people and drug addicts into one area of town to crash the property prices, and then evicting them once developers buy everything for cheap.

    They’re purposely operating at a loss in the expectation that they can get ingrained into a ton of workflows, and then gouge everyone absolutely to death while also worsening the quality of the service to make it cheaper for them to run.

    If it weren’t so horrible for the environment, I’d kind of like it, because all the dumbass executives that are signing up for this are going to get exactly what they deserve. You’d think they’d recognize a scheme when they see one.

    • fishy@lemmy.today
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      2 months ago

      My CEO (whom I don’t consider a particularly good or bad CEO) spent a day playing with AI then when asked if he’d sign the company up with the service he literally laughed in their faces and said it’s useless. I was honestly shocked because he’s totally into buzzword and popular crap. Gained a lot of respect for him that day.

      • WorldsDumbestMan@lemmy.today
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        2 months ago

        An older co-worker seems to ask AI for help during work, we are blue collar. But the Owner of the company does not seem to use it whatsoever.

        I ask Claude on occasion, to see if it will say something smart (it was mostly useless as fuck).

        • Scrollone@feddit.it
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          2 months ago

          Honestly I think Claude it’s good at programming. Way better than ChatGPT.

          But I ain’t going to pay for it.

      • Bluescluestoothpaste@sh.itjust.works
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        2 months ago

        Exactly, these companies will keep leveraging more and more because they know the govt will step in and print whatever number of trillions of dollars needed to fix the accounting. Then they’ll tell us “core” inflation is only 2.8%.

  • usernametbd@lemmy.zipdeleted by creator
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    2 months ago

    Definition of a Bubble. These AI huckster keep stringing investors on though. Sadly, I think these public IPOs coming up for Space X, OpenAI, and Anthropic will fall short of expectation and trigger the bubble popping.

  • AdolfSchmitler@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    Trust me bro we’re so close to profitability bro, just need this IPO to secure funding one last time bro then we’ll be profitable bro I swear.

  • justOnePersistentKbinPlease@fedia.io
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    2 months ago

    My first use of Claude this week, for code reviews only(since no LLM can be trusted to write a user story or test suite), had it gaslight me.

    It marked down my code for using a specific practice to make some xml safer and easier to read.

    When I tried things its way, it wanted me to change it back.

    • WYLD_STALLYNS@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      2 months ago

      Exactly, never trust an LLM to code. And if it argues back, explain why it’s wrong and that you have nothing but time and experience. Most tend to fold when you point out it’s not a free thinking AI, it’s an entrapped corporate model they designed with preprogrammed biases. But I love arguing 😂.

    • Crylos@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      I use it a lot, and if you are getting these kinds of results you are either trolling, or just flat out not providing the details and guardrails required with your prompts.

      I’ve been in software for decades, and if used correctly, yes it can accelerate velocity of building code out. 10x? No… if you are lucky and careful perhaps 2-4x.

      As ALWAYS the human should be in the loop and is on the hook for any code generated.

        • megopie
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          2 months ago

          Just gotta configure and tweak until it gives outputs you find indistinguishable from correct. Just gotta train it to gaslight you properly. Come on don’t you want to be given and endless stream of stuff that looks correct?

      • justOnePersistentKbinPlease@fedia.io
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        2 months ago

        I was using a set of template files designed for LLMs to review that project. It is absolutely the fault of Claude that it tools me to do something one way, then told me to try another and when I reverted it said it was the optimal approach.

        Where I find it helps is in getting initial starts and as a start to code review. But in both cases they aren’t ever operating on their own and their feedback is filtered through myself or another senior dev.

      • tomjuggler@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        Lots of anti-ai people in this thread it seems. I get it - personally I HATE the fake image generation! But I have to agree with you in terms of coding that using LLM’s correctly can offer huge benefits.

        Modern harnesses are getting more and more sophisticated and your milage varies depending on how well you use them (like any complex tool). At the end of the day it’s still up to the developer to take the code and make sure it’s correct - no different from before where we used to copy code from Stack Overflow or other examples and modify them for our own use.

        One thing I have to add - I honestly don’t understand why anyone would use Claude or chatgpt at their ridiculous prices when DeepSeek exists…

        • Nighed@feddit.uk
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          2 months ago

          The question comes down to cost. The actually good models are already expensive, yet still apparently subsidised. Once we have to pay the true cost they will only be worth using when you are truly stuck.

          Lots of use for the simpler models for basic util creation and simpler cleanup refactor stuff though. Quite nice if it actually turns out like that.

    • rozodru@piefed.world
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      2 months ago

      oh it’s great isn’t it? you ask it for help on some code, provides its solution, you try it and it doesn’t work so you respond with the error, it claims YOU wrote it wrong and then when yo utell it “I just copy and pasted what you provided” it says “you’re right, i’m sorry.”

      Claude is to the point now where it just starts hallucinating on the first prompt. it’s 100% unreliable now when before it was like 90%. no point in using it, it’s garbage. and Claude Code is just as bad now. If you or anyone is using Claude Code to develop ANYTHING I would highly suggest you stop right now because I can guarantee you with nearly 100% certainty that whatever shit it’s writing into your stuff isn’t going to work. period.

    • ramble81@lemmy.zip
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      2 months ago

      I found it’s decent for some light QC but when it asks “do you want me to change it?” I’m like “nah, thanks for pointing it out but I’ll do it myself”

    • Arrandee@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      I’ve used Claude and Codex, and while both are based on untenable economics, I can at least attest that my use of Codex has yielded some productive results. Claude, so far, has delivered fuck all that’s useful to me.

      • SleeplessCityLights@programming.dev
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        2 months ago

        I have found the opposite. Codex spits back mostly useless code that is twice the length it needs to be with a bunch of unessesary stuff and Claude is the only thing I get useful output from.