Kremlin may attempt to test Nato cohesion as Russia comes under growing pressure from Ukraine, according to sources from two countries
  • Brave Little Hitachi Wand@feddit.uk
    11·
    2 days ago

    They’ve been in search of a casus belli in that direction for a while. I had hoped they would find their collapse in Ukraine, but it’s too much to hope for I guess.

    • thanksforallthefish@literature.cafe
      11·
      2 days ago

      As their collapse creeps closer (and it is getting close) they’ll get ever more desperate to find a way out.

      Reporting over the years has indicated they view NATO joining the war as a face saving exit strategy (we had to withdraw from Ukraine to avoid big bad NATO) although I dont really understand the point. That could go very badly wrong for them.

      • Brave Little Hitachi Wand@feddit.uk
        7·
        2 days ago

        Russian leadership has very different motives from normal Russian people. That’s true everywhere, but wherever it gets this severe, everything tends to go wrong. Same problem in the US.

        • thanksforallthefish@literature.cafe
          8·
          1 day ago

          Can provide links when back at desk, but off top of head

          • The mafia fuel station (orcistan) is now importing refined fuel instead of exporting it, and crude exports are down to about 20% of 2 yrs ago, with shadow tankers now getting captured. TL;DR income impacted

          • Head of reserve bank (who is extremely competent) has suddenly disappeared, they’re now talking about swiping business and personal bank balances to finance the war. Tl;dr economic mgt issues

          • air defnces being removed from front line to protect moscow + valdai (dachas of putin & oligarchs)

          -UA has massively restricted supply flows into crimea and western ocvupied section, will become increasingly hard to hold

          • russian army recruitment has dropped30% over last couple of months. Meatwaves only work if you can keep replenishing the meat

          • civilians evacuating crimea

          So none of that individually or even in whole means orcistan is going to collapse in the next week, but there is a clear direction of travel towards it as the UA “long distance sanctions” keep biting they will have to withdraw or collapse.

          It’s getting closer but it’s not a done deal. Predictions of late 2026 seem realistic to slightly optimistic.

          The wild card is China & what they do.

          I certainly hope it happens in the next 6-12 months.

          • Yliaster@lemmy.world
            1·
            1 day ago

            Wdym “mafia” fuel station? Isn’t that not Russia as a whole (unless that’s just being used to refer to them)?

            What’s UA?

            Do you mean to say Russia could plausibly crash in a year?

            • thanksforallthefish@literature.cafe
              4·
              1 day ago

              Yes, Russia (Orcistan) is often referred to as a gas station run by the mafia

              UA is the international abbreviation for Ukraine

              Yes, I am saying that Russia could experience a major societal breakdown within the next year, there are a lot of things pushing them in that direction, nothing of course is certain in life but the possibility is a lot closer than it has been quite a while for all the reasons listed above (plus more).

              I am a believer in MRSA https://makerussiasmallagain.net/

              • Yliaster@lemmy.world
                1·
                12 hours ago

                I thought Russia was just russi in Russian, why’s it called orcistan?

                Didn’t know it had a name or a movement to it but the concept of MRSA is something I’ve believed in.

                Though I notice the page calling Russia’s actions against Ukraine genocidal. Not sure if it is a genocide? It meets the first 3/5 criteria of the UN definition (afaik Russia hasn’t tried stopping births in UA or transferring members?), but then again so does every war, and war isn’t typically understood as genocide (?)

                Also the fall of Russia may give the American Empire more power which isn’t desirable either, not sure.

                • thanksforallthefish@literature.cafe
                  2·
                  9 hours ago

                  Orcistan is a pejorative nickname: “istan” being a common central asian suffix meaning “land of” (ie Tajikstan land of the Tajiks, Afghanistan etc). Orcs being a pejorative nickname for Russians in response to their constant use of Kohol (aka Khokhol) for Ukrainians and a reference to their behaviours

                  Is Russia attempting genocide ? Absolutely. Have they succeeded - arguable. To your specific point though, they most certainly have transferred Ukrainians out of their invaded lands including kidnapping of 20,000+ 200,000+ children (sorry there was a zero missing there), the Russians themselves claim they have taken 700K

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_abductions_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war

                  And this certainly comes under genocidal actions because they didn’t just kidnap them, there are reliable reports they are forcing them to become russian (language banned, contact with family banned etc) this is attempts to wipe out a culture.

                  They’ve also forced all Ukrainians in the occupied territories (at gun point) to take russian passports and many thousands have been relocated into Russia (Crimean citizens in particular).

                  The wholesale massacre of civilians with no legal cause is also under the heading of genocide (see Bucha), these aren’t people who got caught in the crossfire, these are people who were dragged out of their homes when the Orcs had over run the town and shot (after being raped).

                  Etc etc, google Russian war crimes in Ukraine, they’re literally treating it as the Geneva checklist, there’s very few items left they haven’t proveably done.

                  The fall of Russia would have given the US more power in a different timeline where they stayed sane, the Fanta Felon has irrevocably destroyed the US’s long term power, it’s a matter of a slow descent like Rome. They certainly will be a force for a long time to come (same as Russia was post USSR) but the deliberate shift of the US into a techno-fuedal fascist society is going to reduce their ability to take advantage.

                  It’s China who are making out like bandits here. They’re making mint selling arms and components to Russia, they’re getting Russian crude cheap because they have them over a barrel, and they’ll soon be able to dictate terms to Russia for bailing them out when their economy collapses