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Cake day: March 26th, 2026

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  • No. I said that retaining an immigration lawyer AND having the proper paperwork would mitigate the risk of ICE.

    And it will. Here’s my analysis of the situation.

    tl;dr: ICE is busy with other things, and will be for some time.

    ICE pushes (and exceeds) the boundaries of both good taste and the legal framework of the Constitution. But it’s not random. There’s a method to the madness.

    Now, check the headlines from the last week.

    No, really! Please? Take a moment. Search for ICE in a fresh incognito browser, one that doesn’t track your personal preferences. Grab a newsfeed from Google or DuckDuckGo. Look at stories from the past week. Two weeks. Don’t see much, do ya? No high-profile demonstrations, no murder in the street, there’s even news of a detention center getting cancelled.

    ICE is undergoing a shift. It’s intentional. The TSA wasn’t being funded during the shutdown, so ICE is now ‘helping’ out at the airports. They are on their best behavior. Squeaky clean, just trying to keep things running. Yay! It’s not an accident that ICE, of all organizations, was called in to help. (National Guard could offer the same level of expertise, which is absolutely zero.)

    Another notable development is that Trump has, several times now, floated the idea of having ICE at the polls, to ensure election integrity. Again and again, Trump babbles about the dangers of mail-in voting and stuffed ballot boxes. And the misinformation parrots are all over that bandwagon, sowing seeds of doubt in the already gullible MAGAts.

    So, here’s the play: Keep the world distracted by blowing up the oil supply. Shift ICE to high-visibility roles. Deploy them to the polling booths in the fall. Steal as much of the midterm elections as you can. Get a rubber-stamp majority in the House, Senate and Supreme Court. At that point, you can do whatever you want. Pass an amendment to the Constitution revoking the 22nd amendment? Sure, at the very least.

    But whatever the case, ICE’s focus is no longer on terrorizing students in blue cities. They’ll be present and visible now, but they won’t be conducting raids en masse. They will now be low-key policing American citizens while pretending to be helpful, multi-purpose federal agents. Nazis disguised as Boy Scouts.

    Right now, Illian Omar is leading the fight by holding up funding for DHS. Ilhan Omar said her caucus will ‘oppose all funding’ for immigration enforcement unless militarized policing ends. She understands what’s going on. She’ll lose, probably, just because sometimes politics is heart-breaking like that…




  • <shrugs>

    I’m sorry, but ICE’s activities are the status quo in many countries. This person is looking at countries like Japan and China. How strict do you think immigration enforcement might be in China? Do you figure that Japan tolerates a lot of inconsistency when filling out an immigration visa?

    It doesn’t matter how things should be, only that this is how they are. Today. RIght now. Yes, the U.S. has a hard-liner in office. Yes, ICE will discriminate - the color of your skin and your country of origin matter. But that’s not so abnormal on a global scale.





  • OR…and hear me out on this…

    Trump escalates the war on the premise that the US should provide safe passage to those ships. He dumps a fleet or two of ships into the Gulf, along with a trillion dollars or so for a ground war and insurance for the tankers. The US and Israel promise to keep the Gulf secure in perpetuity.

    we’ll be living in a very different world. The boot of the west will come off the neck of humanity, and the rest of the world will finally have a chance to breathe.

    We’re already seeing this trend and have for years - but Rome doesn’t collapse in a day.

    The entire point of the petrodollar is to perpetuate the US hegemony. The entire world, including our allies, know this. The average American knows this. It’s just that Americans aren’t in agreement as to whether the current arrangement with OPEC is a net good or a net bad.


  • Um, no. I expected that one of two things would happen:

    1. A knowledge expert would come by and offer more detail and/or correction

    2. Nobody would care

    Apparently, I should have prepared myself to be publicly shamed for trying to add to the conversation. Perhaps you missed the part where I said “…but this seems about right”, and then offered my own analysis. My personal thoughts about the presidential administration that I fucking lived through, of articles I read in real time from a newspaper that was dropped at my door every fucking morning. You want me to source the Kansas City Star from 1976 -1980? Or my civics class in high school? Ted Brokaw? Dan Rather?

    To you, Carter is ancient history. To me, he is a vivid living memory. I was a student during his administration; I remember his policies. His picture was hung in more than one classroom.


  • I agree, of course, that my assessment is simplified. There’s always a host of variables.

    Until OPEC agrees to Iran’s demands to change to Yuan, they’ll still settle in USD. So at this point, it’s just background noise.

    Yes, there are ripple effects. Yes, people will go hungry (hungrier?). Freight costs increase. Less travel. Everything that depends on that sweet, sweet crude will increase in cost.

    Again, this doesn’t affect Trump and his cronies. They have money. They don’t care about the average American and they never did. They don’t care about any other citizen of the world unless that citizen is hideously wealthy AND willing to eat at the same table.

    It’s outrageous, of course. But this situation didn’t just magically create itself. It’s been the norm since OPEC was formed. Our global economy depends on oil, which means every person’s well-being depends on it. The solution is energy independence, but it’s really difficult to get people excited about solar panels. They would much rather see bombs and bullets on TV.


  • If the relationship is worth salvaging, you can meet her halfway. It will take a LOT of work on your part. A lot of compromise. You’ll probably end up feeling suffocated and you’ll probably lie to her a lot, to make her feel better.

    “Mom, I want to do better by you. I want you to be proud of me. I’m not saying I believe everything in the Bible, but I want to ask you some things. About sin and God. I’m not promising to change, but I promise to keep an open mind.”

    Something like that. Then, for topic, ask her to describe a situation where she felt sinful, and exactly what she did to avoid it.

    Basically, you are putting her in a position to be a mentor but ONLY if she shows vulnerability and shares with you her weaknesses. This changes the dynamic of your relationship, puts you on equal footing. Now she is a sinner too.

    Most likely, if she takes the bait, she will tell you about a very small sin. “Oh, I wanted to slap that cashier, but I prayed and God took all the violence away from me.”

    Start picking away, theologically speaking. “So…did you actually sin? Is just thinking about something a sin? Is that really the worst thought you’ve ever had? Have you ever actually sinned, like in real life?” Make it seem like you understand nothing about how sin really works. Encourage her to give personal examples.

    Of course, the conversation might go a totally different direction. Just take it where it goes. Never escalate, always treat her with respect when talking about religion. At any point, when you’ve hit a brick wall, just stop.

    Wait for her to finish talking. Look thoughtful. Meet her eyes. Open your mouth to speak and then close it. Pause again. Then say “I need to think about that. And maybe read…” Walk out of the room. Pop your head back in. Say “Thank you Mom, for taking me seriously.”

    It’s worth noting that I moved out of my parents’ house as soon as I graduated high school to get away from bullshit like this. In the long run, I might have been happier to find a compromise and learn to live with my mom’s nut beliefs and self-righteousness. Best of luck!


  • You can actively work on countering the negative effects, so I’d start with just a list of positives. If all the negatives were gone, which country would you choose?

    Let’s suppose it’s the USA. You’re uncomfortable there, because of violence and ICE scares, but everything else is fine. You can look at local crime rates, especially gun violence. Find an area/school where these statistics are near-zero. You can mitigate the ICE risk by retaining an immigration lawyer and making sure that all your paperwork is in order.

    Make the same type of list with Japan and China. What would you need to do to mitigate the xenophobia/ethnic differences? (Are you already fluent in both languages?)

    You also mention finances, which should probably be near the top of the list. Figure out a realistic cost for your entire time at school, then work with your family to understand what’s doable and what stretches them past the breaking point.



  • I don’t believe in any of this shit - but your mom does, so that’s how we have to approach the problem. If religion got her to this point, religion can dig her back out of it.


    "Mom, I want to talk about God. Like, a serious talk about serious stuff. I’m concerned that you are trying shoulder a HUGE emotional and spiritual burden right now, all by yourself. It’s too big a load. You need to put some of it down.

    All this sin around us? All this evil? It’s what God wanted, right? God created all of humanity and, through Satan, put sin in their hearts.

    But after thousands of years, God saw that humanity needed a broader message, a message that could be understood by all people of the world, not just the Israelites. So he sent his son with an update. And Jesus tells us to take care of those things within our power and leave the rest to God.

    Mom, for your own sake, please think on this. Pray on it. Talk to your friends at church about it. God doesn’t want you taking the weight of the world on your shoulders. It’s too much to bear."


    Maybe grab a Chrisian bible and show her the following, she’d probably love it if you did a little bible study with her:

    1 Peter 5:7 (NIV): “Cast all your anxiety on him because he cares for you”.

    Psalm 55:22 (NIV): “Cast your cares on the Lord and he will sustain you; he will never let the righteous be shaken”.

    Psalm 81:6 (NLT): “I will take the load from your shoulders; I will free your hands from their heavy tasks”.

    2 Corinthians 12:9 (NIV): “But he said to me, ‘My grace is sufficient for you, for my power is made perfect in weakness’”.

    Isaiah 10:27 (KJV): “…the burden shall be taken away from off thy shoulder, and thy yoke from off thy neck…”.

    Philippians 4:6-7 (NIV): Encourages prayer over worry, promising that God’s peace will guard hearts and minds.


  • Yes, divorce is often considered a sin. And…?

    The great thing about Christianity is that sin is expected, anticipated and in some ways, even celebrated.

    The forgiveness of sin is a foundational Christianity principle. IMHO, it’s also why that religions is so popular, especially evangelical Christianity.

    Here’s the gist: Humans are evil beings, filled with sin, each and every one of us. You WILL end up sinning and at that point, you can ask forgiveness. If you are sincere, God will forgive you. YAY! The burden of guilt is now lifted and you can go about your day.

    This is why Christians can do horrible things and then walk away unphased. They have a get of jail free card. When/if they start to feel guilty about their deeds, they just ask forgiveness.

    I’m not being flippant - this process satisfies a deep psychological need that many people seem to have. They want to be a good, empathetic person - but they are greedy and selfish and jealous, just like the rest of us. The Christian religion taps into this common trait and leverages it to the absolute max.


  • Condensing some information for discussion here (and thanks for providing the archive link!):

    It’s not clear what further tools President Donald Trump has to keep global oil prices from surging in the near term – other than fully reopening the strait.

    The situation is even more extreme in liquefied natural gas. The Strait of Hormuz typically accounts for about a fifth of global supply…The US is the world’s biggest LNG exporter, and its domestic gas market is relatively insulated from the war due to its massive production.

    So…why would Trump want to reopen the Straight? Keeping oil in short supply keeps the petrodollar dominant. And it increases the value of domestic oil/natural gas.

    In short, Trump has no reason to ease gas prices. The effects on the upper class are minimal, and he’s shown that he absolutely does not care about the economic impact of his policies upon the working class.

    A very informative article, but (as always seems to be the case with major news outlets) a bit short on analysis and clarity.