I think as a foreigner it is a little easy to miss how significant this is. The timeline of the war bleeds together and people who don’t live in Ukraine can easily forget that Crimea was taken a long time ago… all the way back in 2014.
Ukrainian military commanders being able to say this confidently isn’t just a sign that the meager territorial gains russia has obtained since the start of the 3 Day Special Military Operation might all vanish in what seems like a snap of a finger compared to the lives and time it took for russia to gain them… it is a sign that Ukraine is uprooting the entire apparatus of russian power in the region that has had more than a decade to gain a foothold.
It is important to understand that for the average russian Crimea is far more relevant than basically any other territory taken from Ukraine from what I understand, it is a tourist destination spot that is also useful for its coastline and maritime access it provides, the fact that Ukraine can credibly say it will in the near future cut off Crimea is one of immense historical significance. It means this is the beginning of the end for russia, an end that might not actually be that long if russia doesn’t come to the table with a realistic peace offer soon. Once air defenses systematically collapse there is no way to sustain a war machine capable of a large general offensive…
In the realm of “hearts and minds” russia losing Crimea after it had posessed it for over a decade from a conflict russia chose to begin is a major blow to the war effort and its general cultural support even if people are unable to discuss it too publicly.
I’m loving the Ukrainian military having a huge advantage right now, but I’m wary that this advantage will only last until the Russians figure out some kind of countermeasures.
The russian military absolutely will develop counters that even the power imbalance some, I think Ukrainian military officials have said they forecast Ukraine has about 6 months of this general status quo to take advantage of.
While this is true, there are material, industrial differences that have swung in Ukraine’s favor that will not swing back in russia’s favor.
-
Ukraine’s 155mm artillery production of howitzers and ammunition is one of the largest per month in the world, this was not true a couple of years ago, this fundamentally changes the calculus in Ukraine’s favor.
-
Russia’s aviation industry is for the most part in general collapse and decay.
-
Russia has already sent everybody who was valuable to die on the frontlines, they just don’t have that many skilled personnel with actual experience left alive.
-
Ukraine’s drone production outpaces russia.
-
Ukraine can actually protect its armored vehicle crews and infantry alive, russia cannot figure out how, this creates an ever snowballing disparity in skill in favor of Ukraine.
-
I hope from bottom of my heart that Ukraine is able to push back and gain pre 2014 borders! Unfortunately I don’t see Russians giving Crimea up even if it becomes logistical hell. I hope Ukraine proves me wrong!
Russia will not have a choice.
It does not matter how russia feels about it, when you have been cut off in a combined arms operation that shatters your backline and logistics supply lines, the only choices left are to surrender or die like a fish in a barrel with no hope of escape. Those are your choices.
That is why maneuver warfare works, cutting off an enemy from their supply lines and suppressing them thoroughly from the air and with artillery creates the conditions where large amounts of enemy forces are forced to surrender without having to do battle with each and every enemy soldier.
It is something that always happens faster and more decisively than you expect it to, it is like glass shattering. You won’t be able to see the possibility of it as anything other than a unified impervious system until it has already been shattered.
Can’t spell kettle without Crimea…
I fear the problem is that Ukraine can’t of course cut all of the supply lines without actually gaining all the land around crimea and still some supplies would get through. And as human cost is no coat in russia, they don’t care what kind of hell Crimea would be. In WW2 Sevastopol was under actual siege and it held 2-3 years if I remember correctly.
My understanding is still that Ukraine haven’t done bigger mobilization so I don’t know if they have mon power to do actuall ground attack even against much weaker troops? Manoeuvring war has largelly stopped because of drones, Ukraine would need to still push through heavily fortified area, which for sure is mined and under constant drone thread. It is not easy task, but as I said, I hope Ukraine proves everyone wrong here!
If anything remotely similar to this happens I will be overjoyed. For most of this war it looked like ukraine will lose eventually, mostly because they lack proper weapons.
I promise the only way this doesn’t happen is if russia maneuvers politically to make it impossible or if russia offers an attractive peace deal in a rush to keep Crimea from falling back into Ukraine’s hands and Ukraine agrees to it.
Ukraine dismantled russia’s artillery backbone, and then dismantled its air defense backbone, with those gone there is simply no way for russia to exert control over territory. Any place they concentrate military and industrial power to exert control they become a target for Ukrainian strikes from the air.
The impotency of airpower is being vastly oversold right now because of global politics, people keep trying to convince other people that airpower can exert control over territory, it cannot. It can however thoroughly dismantle a war machine to the point that it is a helpless smoking heap of scrap which is exactly what Ukraine is doing at a blistering clip.
I guess it’s all a question of how thoroughly Ukraine can cut off supplies to eastern Kherson and if they’re able to cross the river (or push south in Zaporizhzhia, but that seems less likely given the fortifications)
If they can manage that and cut off the land bridge then Crimea is probably a foregone conclusion, similar to western Kherson years ago.
But cutting off the land bridge seems like a big IF.
Seems like when they’ve projected moves like this before it’s been a distraction as they do something else. But maybe this is a double reverse fake!
Ukraine has chased russia out of the sea, how can Crimea be defended at a strategic level by russia now?
It requires naval power which russia is currently hemorrhaging.
Don’t forget Turkey occupies a good 90 degrees of rotation about a central point in Crimea, in the realm of electronic warfare this is where the beachhead is, the weakest exposed salient by far.
Russia can have zero confidence about what lurks in the Black Sea to the south and multiple nations fly surveillance, electronic warfare and other intelligence gathering aircraft (manned and unmanned) along that 90 degree arc.
Don’t get me wrong. I hope you’re right. But doesn’t that vulnerability also then apply to Ukraine if they take Crimea?
Just look at the geography yourself, you can see that possessing Crimea does not significantly increase Ukraine’s exposure in terms of how many degrees of rotation about a point on Ukraine’s coastline to unknown Electronics Warfare and Signals Intelligence assets Ukraine is vulnerable to looking south.
For russia however, what was before a large continental expanse approaching a sea from a restricted set of angles is now essentially a problem of protecting a island with a huge degree of unknowables surrounding it.
Also Ukraine doesn’t have nearly as many enemies as russia does…
In the more short/medium term, is it more important to isolate Crimea this way so they can’t support the front lines, especially via the Kerch bridge, or as a way to push them out of Crimea sooner?
I think isolating and then forcing russia to abandon or essentially abandon Crimea is no less than a decisive demonstration russia has lost the war.
In otherwords, it is a strategic goal in of itself. You don’t need to extrapolate out what the impact is, it functions as the end credits to the movie.
The “movie” ending here being the current open large scale land war, not an end to conflict with russia of course.
@supersquirrel https://sopuli.xyz/post/47108254
The only good way to go. The bridge must come down. Mine any passage under it so no exports from the Azov sea anymore. No supply across the bridge. Then focus on any shipping still ‘landing’ in Crimea.There is military wisdom to keeping some bridges of retreat open however, leaving the enemy a route to flee can be the knife in the heart of their will to fight to the last man. I can’t really judge that calculus not knowing all the details of whether it is a good idea to completely take the bridge down or not.
To me it seems wisest though for Ukraine to set the explosives and leave russians an impossible choice when the time comes over whether to use a bridge that appears to so far have been impervious to Ukrainian attack or at least Ukraine has been unwilling to attack, or whether to try a much more difficult route of evacuation.
One of the more interesting things that came out recently is that the Kerch Bridge may have been damaged severely enough to limit traffic on it. So lighter civilian traffic is good to cross it, but moving heavy equipment (like tanks, fuel, etc) is not possible.
If this is true they can leave it alone and focus on the last remaining ferry for trucks and wrecking havoc on the northern land route.
